Demand for lithium-based greases
The worldwide demand for lithium-based greases is experiencing a downturn, increasingly replaced by alternatives using This shift is largely due to escalating prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, primarily driven by the surge in electric vehicle production, according to an industry expert.
Additionally, lithium greases are now potentially endangered by the European Union’s contemplation of labeling lithium as a hazardous material. Terry Dicken, chairman of the European Lubricating Grease Institute, shared insights at the Goma Lubricants and Base Oils symposium in Zagreb, Croatia. He pinpointed the burgeoning electric vehicle market and China’s electric public transport initiatives as principal contributors to the raw material challenges facing grease manufacturers.
Dicken highlighted the looming global lithium shortage, further compounded by the European Union’s Chemical Agency considering stringent regulations on the toxicity of key lithium salts, including lithium carbonate, lithium chloride, and lithium hydroxide. He cited projections from consulting firm Macquarie, expecting lithium carbonate equivalent production to hit 679,000 tons in 2023, a significant rise from 2020 levels. This production increase comes amidst a growing deficit in lithium carbonate supply, which is anticipated to exacerbate to 61,000 tons this year.
The rising demand for electric vehicles has buoyed lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices, eroding the surplus observed in 2019 and 2020. Credit Suisse forecasts suggest that lithium demand could triple by 2025 from 2020 levels, with supply struggling to meet this surge and necessitating higher prices to encourage adequate supply response.
These factors contribute to the declining demand for lithium grease, favoring calcium, aluminum, and polyurea greases instead. In 2020, lithium-based thickeners dominated 71% of the global industrial grease market, but this is projected to drop to 64% by 2026. In contrast, the market shares of polyurea and calcium greases are expected to increase significantly.
Dicken also discussed the EU’s proposal on lithium classification. In 2021, the ECHA’s Risk Assessment Committee, after a robust evaluation, classified three lithium salts as reproductive toxins. Eurometaux, the European non-ferrous metals association, recognizes the importance of lithium salts but emphasizes the necessity for ensuring their safety for human health and the environment.
The proposed EU hazard classification process for these lithium salts, initiated in 2019 by the French health and safety regulatory agency, has seen considerable debate, balancing scientific evidence with socio-economic considerations. If the ECHA classifies lithium hydroxide as a reproductive toxin, it could significantly affect its use, labeling, and carriage within the EU and globally.
Dicken concluded that while lithium greases will continue to lead the market, the industry is actively exploring alternative thickeners. Regional preferences, such as polyurea in Japan, China, and North America, and the resurgence of calcium grease, indicate a dynamic and evolving market. He forecasts continued market growth driven by industrial output and emerging markets.
