Fluids for electric vehicles
Demand for fluids for electric vehicles (EVs) is likely to see double-digit growth by 2040 as the United States overtakes China and the European Union to become the leading market for commercial battery electric vehicles.
According to market consultancy Kline & Co., strong growth is expected for heavy-duty greases, transmission fluids and engine oils used in hybrids and plug-in hybrids.
In a webinar presentation last month, Sharbel Luzuriaga, project manager for Kline based in Prague, highlighted that while growth at this rate is impressive, the market is small compared to finished lubricants in general.
“Obviously it’s growing exponentially because it comes from a very small base,” he said in a webinar on commercial electric vehicle lubrication demand.
Meanwhile, commercial vehicle thermal management fluids are expected to grow at a slower pace. Luzuriaga says this is largely due to the effectiveness of air and indirect cooling in long-distance commercial vehicles.
He attributes the US leap to more aggressive regulations and policies addressing the commercial vehicle segment in the US and Europe.
“In the US, certain states like California are imposing targets of 50% to 60% EV sales in commercial vehicles and commercial trucks,” Luzuriaga said. He went on to say that similarly, some European member states have pledged 100% emission reductions in the commercial vehicle segment. On the other hand, China is focusing its efforts on passenger vehicles.
The current volume of demand for commercial vehicle fluids is around 40,000 tonnes, which Kline predicts will rise from 500,000 tonnes by 2040, a different picture from what we have seen in passenger vehicles.
Adoption of commercial EVs lags behind passenger cars, according to Kline. However, the barriers to wider acceptance are the same as for consumer vehicles: battery capacity, range, cost and demanding service requirements.
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